Based on cyclical analysis, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and portfolio analysis, Petrov says the bottom for gold could be in already, but most likely will be behind us within one to seven months. That’s early to mid-2014, now rapidly approaching.
Author Archive: International Man
Gold’s true value is not as a trading commodity, but as a means to preserve wealth. If the bond market collapses, gold will remain. If the stock market collapses, gold will remain. If currencies fail, gold will remain. Gold may well go plunging down but will ultimately come back up and go well beyond previous levels. $2000? $4000? $6000? Hard to say.
While currencies are all relative to each another, strategic currency investing can generate positive real returns over time. While the Fed and the Bank of England have been cranking the proverbial printing presses, the European Central Bank has been mopping up liquidity. And the Japanese may be just getting started with their balance sheet expansion.
We essentially have three options with regard to this eventuality. If we are in a large country that is in decline. We can: (1) Choose to go down with ship. (2) Keep an eye on developments and hope to jump ship at some opportune point. (3) Do a bit of homework and see if we can identify those jurisdictions that may be safer havens for our wealth (and, very possibly, ourselves) and make a move early.
There should be no doubt that when the US government decides to implement capital controls or other restrictive measures, it will likely have the near-total support of the media and by extension the majority of the people. The time to internationally diversify your assets is running out.
By Jeff Thomas, International Man The above quote is from William Gouge, commenting on the Panic of 1819. The panic had been caused when the First Bank of the United States had first expanded the money supply dramatically by offering loans, then contracted the money supply by tightening its requirements for new loans, causing a crash. This is a useful quote, as, in its simplicity, it states the very nature of crashes brought on by irresponsible banking practices. In every case in which this occurs, it is possible through the complicity of the government of the day. The origin of this syndrome goes back to Mayer Rothschild, a very clever […]
If you find yourself struggling in the current “risk on”/”risk off” market environment to make a decent return on your portfolio, you may find solace in the fact that you’re not alone. Even the professionals, meaning large institutional investors, are struggling to achieve positive real returns. The German newspaper, Der Spiegel, recently interviewed Yngve Slyngstad, the chief investment officer of Norway’s wealth fund. Slyngstad is responsible for managing $558 billion largely earned from the country’s oil revenue. In the article, he states, “In the past we searched for risk-free returns… today we know that what we mainly have are investments with return-free risk.” It’s clear that many investors attempting to […]
John Mauldin, International Man I am frequently asked in meetings or after a speech whether I think we will have inflation or deflation. “Yes,” I readily reply, trying hard not to smirk, as the questioner tries to digest the answer. And while my answer is flippant, it’s also the truth, as I do expect both outcomes. Following the obligatory chuckle from the rest of the group comes a follow-up request for a few more specifics. And they are that I expect we will first see deflation and then inflation, but the key is the timing. Recessions are by definition deflationary. Deleveraging events are also deflationary. A recession accompanied by deleveraging […]