Author Archive: Gary Christenson

I am a retired accountant and business manager who has 30 years of experience studying markets, investing, and trading futures and stocks. I have made and lost money during my investing career, and those successes and losses have taught me about timing markets, risk management, government created inflation, and market crashes. I currently invest for the long term, and I swing trade (in a trade from one to four weeks) stocks and ETFs using both fundamental and technical analysis. I offer opinions and commentary, but not investment advice.

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WMD – Weapons of Mass Destruction

WMD – Weapons of Mass Destruction

“WMD” also is “Wasteful Monetary Devastation.” WASTEFUL: We all know that governments spend money in wasteful ways and compensate with higher taxes, deficits, huge debt, “printed currencies” and inflation. “Bridges to nowhere,” various wars, and “giveaways” benefit a few at the expense of many. MONETARY: Printing and digitally creating many trillions of dollars, euros, yen, or pounds may temporarily bail out banks and governments but in the big picture they destroy capital and weaken the economies of the nations which are deluding themselves. DEVASTATION: Overwhelm governments, corporations, and individuals with debt, cut interest rates, devastate pension returns, punish savers, trash economies, blow more unsustainable bubbles, drink another bottle of delusion, […]

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Crude Oil Bottoms and Blues

Crude Oil Bottoms and Blues

Crude oil prices have dropped from about $106 in June of 2014 to briefly under $30 in January of 2016 – down about 74% peak to trough. This appears to be an on-going disaster for oil companies, the banks who loaned money to frackers, oil exporting countries, global stock markets and others. Conventional wisdom suggests that crude oil prices will stay low for a long time because of low demand (global recession), huge supply (Iran, fracking, etc.), decline in commodity prices globally, and at least ten more reasons. Maybe! But crude oil prices have crashed before and then rallied. Examine the following chart and the 4 step sequences shown. Note […]

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Central Bank Created Silver Rally

Central Bank Created Silver Rally

Central banks have created a mess, unless you enjoy unemployment, crashing economies, a wave of bankruptcies, and half of the world’s assets owned by only a few people. From Chris Martinson: The Deflation Monster Has Arrived “Most of the bad decisions that will haunt our future were made by the Federal Reserve in its ridiculous attempts to sustain the unsustainable.” “… looking at the next few years, we will experience this as a time of unprecedented financial market turmoil, political upheaval and social unrest. The losses will be staggering. Markets are going to crash, wealth will be transferred from the unwary to the well-connected, and life for most people will […]

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Gold Deficits, Fort Knox, and a Reset

Gold Deficits, Fort Knox, and a Reset

Everyone knows that government expenses and deficits are out of control. Think U.S., Europe, the U.K., Japan, and others. So what? Borrowing today supposedly brings spending forward from the future, so future spending should be curtailed. It hasn’t happened so far. But no government will reduce spending so they must either borrow more or devalue their currency via “money printing,” various forms of QE – bond monetization, or increasing taxes. Not sustainable! Global debt exceeds $200 Trillion – a number so large it is essentially incomprehensible. U.S. official debt is about $19 Trillion with unfunded liabilities in the $100 – $200 Trillion range. Again – incomprehensible. All of the above […]

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A Short History of Paper Money

A Short History of Paper Money

It fails! $ $ $ Suppose you had a printing press in your basement along with a supply of perfect paper. You could slip down to your basement and print a batch of perfect $100 notes or 500 euro notes, but only in an emergency. I predict that you would find many emergencies. Suppose the government or central bank had access to that printing press (they do) and suppose they printed (and borrowed) ONLY in circumstances of economic need, political promises, war, necessary deficits, Presidential junkets, Wall Street bailouts, economic stimulus, vote buying, “emergencies,” and “special circumstances.” Sound familiar? What could go wrong? And that is the problem with central […]

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Strange and Crazy in the Financial World!

Strange and Crazy in the Financial World!

It’s been crazy so long it feels like normal … Several $ Trillion in global debt “pays” negative interest. Loan your capital to an essentially bankrupt government and lose a portion of that capital every year! Strange and crazy! The US government runs deficits – every year – in the $500 Billion to $1 Trillion range. These are the official deficits, not what GAAP accounting would calculate. So what? Just print and borrow more. Strange and crazy! The Fort Knox Bullion Depository is so important that almost no one is allowed inside, even the President. It is so important that the gold has not been (truly) audited during the past […]

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Gold Deficits and T-Bond Fantasies

Gold Deficits and T-Bond Fantasies

Fantasy #1: My name is John Q. Public. I live a good life, make lots of money (never mind how) and have debts such as a mortgage on a great house – $375,000, a Cessna – $150,000 (my air force), and a sweet little two mast sailing ship – $78,000 (my navy). Also my wife and children (my army) spend a lot of money. My total credit card debt is $97,000. But this was a bad month for revenue collections and there was only one thing to do. I called the customer service agent at my bank – the 3rd State Bank of Chicago, and asked for a credit limit […]

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Gold in 2016

Gold in 2016

We all know that gold prices in US dollars have been in a downtrend for about 4.5 years. We all know that gold prices rise, on average, as the underlying currency declines in value. Gold in the US was priced under $21 per ounce when the Federal Reserve was established. Since then the dollar has been devalued and gold has increased in price by a factor of about 50. It is the same story around the world, whether you evaluate in terms of British pounds, euros, rubles, yen, or any other debt based fiat paper currency. So what are gold prices today and what will they be in the next […]

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Silver, Silliness, Gold, and Risk

Silver, Silliness, Gold, and Risk

The movie “The Big Short” features Michael Burry. His statement from Zerohedge: “It seems the world is headed toward negative real interest rates on a global scale. This is toxic. Interest rates are used to price risk, and so in the current environment, the risk pricing mechanism is broken.” Repeat: “THE RISK PRICING MECHANISM IS BROKEN.” What risks could be mispriced? A few come to mind. The world is saturated in debt – over $200 Trillion. Does anyone expect that debt to be repaid? What are the risks when over $200 Trillion in debt can be counted as an asset ONLY if that massive and increasing debt can be rolled […]

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Silver and S&P Similarities – Tops and Bottoms

Silver and S&P Similarities – Tops and Bottoms

Examine the 30 year log scale chart of the S&P 500. What I see:   Tops occurred about every seven years. Tops were usually rounded, followed by intense drops. Tops were approximately Aug. 1987, Jan. 1994, March 2000, Oct. 2007, and May 2015. Once the S&P broke below the red up-trending support lines in 2000, 2007, and (probably) in 2015, the rally was over and large corrections occurred. The next large move in the S&P looks like it should be, based on history, a substantial correction to the 600 – 1,400 range. Other Considerations: Federal Reserve easy money has helped create the last six years of S&P rally. The Fed […]

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Silver Rides a Runaway Expense Train

Silver Rides a Runaway Expense Train

The US government will spend nearly $4 Trillion this fiscal year – starting last October 1. Of course it projects a massive deficit, increasing national debt, uses “funny” accounting, and does not address unfunded liabilities. Business as usual… Examine the last 100 years of US government expenditures and national debt – on a log scale in $ millions. Note that official government expenses have increased from about $750 million to about $4 Trillion, an increase by a factor of over 5,000. National Debt (official – not including unfunded liabilities) has increased from about $3 billion to nearly $19 Trillion in 100 years, an increase by a factor of about 6,000. […]

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Silver: Until Paper Currencies Stop Losing Value

Silver: Until Paper Currencies Stop Losing Value

Alasdair McLeod wrote an excellent article in which he said, “So if anyone asks you when you might take your profits in gold and silver, smile sweetly and just say, ‘When paper money stops losing its value.’” When will paper money stop losing its value? I submit that unbacked fiat paper money will, based on history, never stop losing value – as long as it is backed by dodgy sovereign debt issued by governments descending deeper into debt ever year. A viable alternative is currency backed by gold and silver, but even though precious metals have been used successfully as money for centuries, there is far more profit for TPTB […]

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Dishonest Money Will Die – I Hope

Dishonest Money Will Die – I Hope

Honest money – gold and silver – are not supported by governments and central bankers for obvious reasons. The Fed can “print” $85 Billion per month to buy dodgy paper to support the banking system, but the Fed can’t produce 75 million ounces of gold each month. Consequently we use dishonest money. A FEW QUESTIONS: If The-Powers-That-Be (TPTB) wanted honest money, why do they encourage dishonest money (the digital and paper stuff)? If counterfeiting is illegal and wrong, why do TPTB encourage fractional reserve banking, which is legal counterfeiting? If TPTB did not want inflation, why do they encourage central banks to devalue their currencies and create price inflation? If […]

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Silver: We NEED It!

Silver: We NEED It!

The answer to many questions often depends upon perspective, whether the questions are; should I buy silver, is the S&P 500 expensive, is huge and unpayable debt a problem, is another World War a bad idea, will eating potato chips and candy bars actually damage my health, and are Republicrats as useless and corrupt as they appear? Many people have suggested that silver prices are hopeless and silver will never go up. This is an overly emotional perspective caused by 4.5 years of declining silver prices and negative sentiment. Consistent with this “hopeless” assessment are: If silver prices ever get back to $20, or $30 or $40, I’ll sell and […]

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