Author Archive: Gary Christenson

I am a retired accountant and business manager who has 30 years of experience studying markets, investing, and trading futures and stocks. I have made and lost money during my investing career, and those successes and losses have taught me about timing markets, risk management, government created inflation, and market crashes. I currently invest for the long term, and I swing trade (in a trade from one to four weeks) stocks and ETFs using both fundamental and technical analysis. I offer opinions and commentary, but not investment advice.

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Why Debt, Default, and Taxes Are Destructive In The Long Run

| December 8, 2014 | Category: Economy
Why Debt, Default, and Taxes Are Destructive In The Long Run

The official US National Debt is about $18,000,000,000,000, or 57 times the current market price of the US gold SUPPOSEDLY stored at Fort Knox, the NY Fed, and elsewhere. With so much paper in the system it is easy to see why the Fed publicly denigrates gold. In the single year from Sept. 30, 2013 to Sept. 30, 2014, the US official national debt increased by over three times the value of all the gold that the US supposedly owns. The total debt and the increase in that debt is clearly “a problem.”

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Silver: Anomaly In Open Interest

| December 1, 2014 | Category: Trading
Silver: Anomaly In Open Interest

Open interest is roughly 175,000 contracts, which is about 875,000,000 ounces of paper silver. At market price that is about $13 Billion, or only about 15% of what the Fed created each month during QE3. It would take very little digital currency, relatively speaking, to buy all the open interest, or to crush prices via naked sales of paper contracts. Stacks of physical silver are much safer and far more “real.”

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What COT Analysis Tells About Silver’s Outlook

| November 24, 2014 | Category: Price
What COT Analysis Tells About Silver’s Outlook

The chart over the past 7 years is messy so focus on the lows in silver prices and the lows in the COT net longs as I defined above. Note the few times in the last 7 years when the net longs were less than 30,000. Each instance was followed by a bounce in the silver price, some huge and some short lived. Note also that the lows in silver prices during 2011 and 2012 were lower lows consistent with the lower lows in the net-long COT data. However, the lower lows in silver prices for 2013 – 2014 were unlike the higher lows in the net-long COT data. Important? Possibly, but it does support my view that silver just put in a major low.

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Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse or the New Dawn

| November 19, 2014 | Category: Economy
Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse  or the New Dawn

Figuratively speaking, the Four Horsemen are trashing our world. In opposition to the Four Horsemen are the Four Rays of the New Dawn. Gold and silver will continue to be hated and denigrated by western central banks and governments. Asian governments, central banks and individuals will continue to love and accumulate gold and silver. Ask yourself why Asians want gold and Wall Street wants paper.

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Gold And Silver Price, Crude Oil and S&P Ending Large Wedge Patterns

| November 17, 2014 | Category: Price
Gold And Silver Price, Crude Oil and S&P Ending Large Wedge Patterns

Gold and silver look like they have bottomed – again. Perhaps this time it will be a real bottom instead of another fake-out like December 2013 and June 2014. Crude oil has crashed by about 30% in the last five months. The charts show what could be an important bottom. One would think that increasing conflicts in Iraq and the Ukraine would support oil prices. The S&P 500 Index has powered higher for 5 years with only minor corrections. The “Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen Put” has levitated the market to a very high level. It looks like a danger zone to me.

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Silver to S&P 500 Ratio Suggests A Silver Price Rebound

| November 10, 2014 | Category: Investing
Silver to S&P 500 Ratio Suggests A Silver Price Rebound

Based on Friday’s upticks, last week may have been the turning point for silver prices and the silver to S&P ratio. Or perhaps the S&P will continue reaching for the sky even though QE is supposedly diminishing, while silver prices drop further below the cost of production. Both seem unlikely but we shall see. What is clear is that silver and gold are currently selling at bargain prices and the S&P is selling at very high prices. If the silver market has finally found a bottom then silver is – right now – an excellent investment, financial insurance, and protection for your purchasing power and savings.

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Silver and Powerful Forces

Silver and Powerful Forces

For several years it seems that powerful forces have been aligned against gold and silver. What will happen to prices when some or all of those powerful forces reverse and align in favor of precious metals, for their own protection and profit?

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What’s Next For Silver?

| November 3, 2014 | Category: Price
What’s Next For Silver?

What do the charts show? Obviously they show silver and gold prices falling, almost relentlessly since 2011. Prices have collapsed, technical indicators are deeply “oversold” on quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily charts. Expect prices to rise when they are finally ready to/allowed to rise. When? Ask the HF Traders. But oversold conditions are usually corrected with rallies. The more “over-sold” the more likely a strong rally will develop. Not inevitable – just likely.

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A Tale of Two Cities

A Tale of Two Cities

Our fictional City A might resemble some major cities in the western hemisphere. It is inhabited by regular people as well as politicians, rats, and central bankers. Currency units are digital, purchase less every year, and are created in large quantities every day. The political and financial elite control most of the government and the economy for their own benefit. Economic statistics and financial TV continually assure the people that “it’s all good.” The crashes of 2000, 2006, and 2008 caused many people to question the usual narrative.

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Gold or Crushing Paper Debt

Gold or Crushing Paper Debt

Our financial world seems more unstable and more dangerous than usual. Which has been safer under difficult economic and political conditions during the past 3,000 years – gold or debt based paper?

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What Has The Gold Price Done Since 9-11

| October 16, 2014 | Category: Price
What Has The Gold Price Done Since 9-11

Note the graph of the ratio of gold to the S&P 500 Index. Both are rising together and gold is now inexpensive (again) compared to the S&P 500 Index, like it was on 9-11. Since 9-11 crude oil prices have gone much higher and crashed lower but on average they have increased with gold prices.

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Silver Price At Historical Extremes Compared To Oil And Stocks

Silver Price At Historical Extremes Compared To Oil And Stocks

Silver is currently inexpensive compared to the S&P 500 Index, crude oil, the size and rate of increase of the national debt, and especially the future price for silver after markets have reset, paper assets have devalued, and hard assets have jumped much higher in price.

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What Has Recent History Shown About Inflation, Debt, Prosperity?

| October 8, 2014 | Category: Economy
What Has Recent History Shown About Inflation, Debt, Prosperity?

Wars will continue but may not be decisively won or lost. Debt and currency in circulation will rise exponentially. Consumer prices will continue increasing.
Gold, silver, crude oil, gasoline and food will become much more expensive. Voters will continue voting for politicians and wars even though both cause prices to rise. The number of Americans on food stamps (SNAP) will continue rising. Unemployment statistics will fall in election years but the actual number of Americans working full-time jobs will decline.

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Gold vs S&P 500: Insights From The 25-Year Chart

| October 7, 2014 | Category: Economy
Gold vs S&P 500: Insights From The 25-Year Chart

The gold vs S&P500 ratio at the gold peak in 1980 was about 8. The ratio was trending downward from 1980 to about 2001. Subsequent to the stock market crash of 2000, 9-11, and the massive increase in spending and debt, the ratio now trends upward.

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