Author Archive: Gary Christenson

I am a retired accountant and business manager who has 30 years of experience studying markets, investing, and trading futures and stocks. I have made and lost money during my investing career, and those successes and losses have taught me about timing markets, risk management, government created inflation, and market crashes. I currently invest for the long term, and I swing trade (in a trade from one to four weeks) stocks and ETFs using both fundamental and technical analysis. I offer opinions and commentary, but not investment advice.

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Zika, ZIRP, and NIRP Viruses

Zika, ZIRP, and NIRP Viruses

The Zika virus is the newest threat to humanity, especially pregnant women, so they say. Big Pharma is working feverishly to create a vaccine. Chances are the vaccine will be created, highly profitable, and Big Pharma will be “held harmless” for injuries to those who were vaccinated. Add GM mosquitoes, birth defects, Brazilian Olympics, big profits, and the story becomes a huge distraction. John Rappoport has suggested there is more to the story.   There is money to be made on vaccines and GM mosquitos, and money to be lost if sales of pesticides and other chemicals are reduced. It is clear in which direction the politics will lean. The Zika virus should remind us of other […]

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Fiscal and Monetary Madness

Fiscal and Monetary Madness

When central banks and politicians “manage” global currencies, we can expect: Exponentially increasing debt and currency devaluations Massive inflations and deflationary crashes. Transfer of wealth from the many to the few. Derivatives exceeding $1,000 Trillion and eventually a crash. A mathematically inevitable financial collapse. Monetary and fiscal madness. Booms and busts. Much higher gold and silver prices. It has happened before and it will happen again… Last Century Madness: Weimar inflation in Germany 1921-1923: The exchange rate for Marks changed from 90 Marks to the US dollar in 1921 to over 4 Trillion Marks to the US dollar in about 2 years. Argentina devalued their peso and exponentially expanded the […]

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Silver – a Long-Term Perspective

Silver – a Long-Term Perspective

We all know silver is volatile. When gold rallies, silver usually rallies faster and farther, particularly after the rally has been well established. Volatility is not a reason to avoid silver. Instead, now is a time to continue stacking. Yes, silver almost certainly will correct many times, but examine the big picture. Over the past 50 years prices for stocks, silver, gold, crude oil, health care, and presidential elections have increased exponentially, mainly due to massive increases in debt (see graph below) and devaluations of currencies. Expect exponential price increases to continue. Over 50 years the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged about 700 times larger than the price of […]

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Gold and Paper 1951 – 2016

Gold and Paper 1951 – 2016

      From Raymond Chandler in “The Long Goodbye:” “There is no trap so deadly as the trap you set for yourself.” (Think deficit spending, central banking, QE, and “printing money.”) Images that come to mind are:   Future Possibilities for dollars/euros/pounds/yen: More debt, “money printing,” central bank desperation, currency devaluations, QE, and more of the same failed policies – will produce higher gold prices. Inflationary blow-off and gold prices go astronomical in devalued currencies, as they have in many other countries in the past century. Deflationary depression, tens or hundreds of $Trillions of debt defaults that make the 1930s look like a “walk in the park” by comparison […]

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Zika, ZIRP, and NIRP Viruses

Zika, ZIRP, and NIRP Viruses

The Zika virus is the newest threat to humanity, especially pregnant women, so they say. Big Pharma is working feverishly to create a vaccine. Chances are the vaccine will be created, highly profitable, and Big Pharma will be “held harmless” for injuries to those who were vaccinated. Add GM mosquitos, birth defects, Brazilian Olympics, big profits, and the story becomes a huge distraction. John Rappoport has suggested there is more to the story. There is money to be made on vaccines and GM mosquitos, and money to be lost if sales of pesticides and other chemicals are reduced. It is clear in which direction the politics will lean. The Zika […]

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Keep the Money Game Churning!

Keep the Money Game Churning!

There is money to be made so the game must be played… It’s always “ShowTime” in the financial markets. What is the game plan? Levitate the bond market. See chart below. Keep those interest rates dropping so the bond market continues its 35 year climb. Oops – $7 Trillion in bonds with negative interest rates, at last count, with more from Japan this week. Have we reached a limit? Probably not, but what could go wrong lending money to insolvent governments who guarantee they will return less than they borrowed in 10 years? Currencies must retain some purchasing power. No Argentina or Zimbabwe devaluations will be allowed. When the dollars/euros/yen/pounds […]

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Future Gold Prices

Future Gold Prices

The internet is filled with predictions for the price of gold, from $500 to $50,000 per ounce. It depends on your world view. If you are a central banker or a powerful financial player which often supplies loyal employees to serve as Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, the low gold numbers look good. Or, if you understand the incredible $200+ Trillion of debt the world has accumulated and realize it can’t be repaid, then gold at $10,000 probably looks inevitable. Crashes occur and sovereign debt markets look like paper bubbles with disastrous potential to send gold much higher. A better approach to estimating future gold prices, in my opinion, is […]

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Silver Buy Signal – 2016

Silver Buy Signal – 2016

The gold to silver ratio has been used for years to indicate buy and sell zones in both gold and silver. Why? At BOTTOMS in both gold and silver, based on 40 years of history, silver prices have fallen farther and faster than gold. Hence the gold/silver ratio reaches a relative high. At tops in both gold and silver the ratio is often low since silver rises more rapidly than gold. As Jim Sinclair says, “silver is gold on steroids.” Examine the following graph of the gold to silver ratio (monthly data) for the past 40 years. I have circled the six most extreme highs in the ratio with green […]

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Silver Prices in Five Years?

Silver Prices in Five Years?

What will the price of silver be in 2021? You can find articles suggesting the price of silver will be over $1,000 and under $10. Perhaps this is the wrong question. A better approach: The global financial system is increasingly unstable and fragile, more so than in 2008. The important question is: How will governments, central banks and financial systems respond to the ongoing crisis? Future prices for silver are dependent upon the answer to that question. I suggest three possible scenarios. Scenario One – status quo: The next five years could look much like the last 20 years. Politicians spend too much money, debt expands exponentially, central banks monetize […]

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Gold Will Overwhelm Dent

Gold Will Overwhelm Dent

Harry Dent is a good demographer and stands for what he believes. But this is not about Harry Dent. Charles Sizemore is a writer and editor who works for Harry Dent, but this is not about Charles Sizemore. This is about gold! Over a century ago JP Morgan understood that gold was money and the rest was credit. But he lived when you could buy groceries with a gold eagle and a cup of coffee cost a few cents. Ben Bernanke and hundreds of other “paper pushers” ignore gold, pretend not to understand it, and pressure the world to transact business using their paper currency Ponzi schemes. Why? Because the […]

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It Has Begun!

It Has Begun!

The S&P 500 Index (chart below) shows a top in May 2015, a correction into August, and a deeper fall this month – February 2016. Look out below. The Shanghai Composite Index looks grim. Both markets are due for a bounce with more downside thereafter. Gold mining stocks (the GDX) have rallied over 50% since the January low. They should correct and then rally for several years. The chart of gold looks similar. It has broken out of a long term downtrend, looks ready to correct, and then continue its rally past all-time highs. The silver chart is showing the same message as gold – a bottom, breakout, possible correction, […]

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Q&A with Mr. Silver Market

Q&A with Mr. Silver Market

Q: Most people do not value silver and prefer to invest in bonds from big governments. Why? A: Most people would prefer to follow the herd because following the herd is comforting and often correct. Occasionally it is disastrous. I suspect the next few years will see the herd slaughtered. (Bubbles always pop and bonds are in a bubble.) *** Q: Silver has gone down for almost five years. Will it continue to drop? A: Probably not, but if you are stacking for the long term, you care little! Silver was valuable and minted into coins 2,000 years ago in the Roman era. It will remain valuable 1,000 years from […]

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Silver, Gold, the Argentina Peso & Exponentially Increasing Prices

Silver, Gold, the Argentina Peso & Exponentially Increasing Prices

The exchange rate between the Argentina Peso and the US dollar in January 1945 was 4.17 pesos to one dollar. Like the United States, Argentina created substantial price inflation – devaluation of their currency – in the 1950s – 1990s. According to Wikipedia Argentina devalued their currency by a factor of 100 in 1970, by another 10,000 in 1983, by another 1,000 in 1985, and by another 10,000 in 1992. From Alan Greenspan in 1966: “In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation.” In summary the 1945 peso was devalued by 10 trillion to one between 1945 and 2015. Imagine […]

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Gold, Gold Stocks, and the End Game

Gold, Gold Stocks, and the End Game

We have seen the bottom in the gold market and gold stocks. Evidence: 1. Examine the 30+ year chart of the monthly XAU (gold stock Index) to Gold ratio. You can see that the downtrend in the ratio has lasted about 20 years – since 1996. The ratio is now at all-time lows in the form of a contracting triangle. The triangle appears broken to the upside. 2. In the last 20 years gold has moved upward from under $300 to $1,100 per ounce yet the XAU index has not kept pace, as shown by the ratio dropping from about 0.35 down to 0.03. 3. Gold hit a multi-year low […]

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