Based on cyclical analysis, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and portfolio analysis, Petrov says the bottom for gold could be in already, but most likely will be behind us within one to seven months. That’s early to mid-2014, now rapidly approaching.
Author Archive: Gary Christenson
I am a retired accountant and business manager who has 30 years of experience studying markets, investing, and trading futures and stocks. I have made and lost money during my investing career, and those successes and losses have taught me about timing markets, risk management, government created inflation, and market crashes. I currently invest for the long term, and I swing trade (in a trade from one to four weeks) stocks and ETFs using both fundamental and technical analysis. I offer opinions and commentary, but not investment advice.
Interlocking complicity produces a degree of stability as it helps maintain the status quo, which is very important to the powers-that-be. Interlocking complicity ensures that accountability, oversight, and ethical practices are low priorities, while payoffs and no-bid contracts will maintain their important role in government operations. Interlocking complicity ensures that little change will occur until it is forced upon us.
The ZIRP and QE are causing the retirement funds for many governments and corporations to be more underfunded each year. If your retirement comes from a government pension, it is less secure each year. It can’t remain underfunded forever. Corporate pension systems invest similarly. If your retirement comes from a corporate pension, it is less secure each year.
Ryan Jordan, Ph.D. is the author of “Silver – The Peoples Metal” which I highly recommend. He sees silver fundamentals from the perspective of a historian and as an astute observer of present conditions. He studies the drivers of the silver market, supply, demand, mining, inflation, investment sentiment, central bank bond monetization policies, and politics.
The inevitable conclusion of this article that, over the long term, money supply, debt, and prices will increase until there is a systemic reset or crash. What will endure throughout the inevitable inflation, deflation, and crash? Gold and silver will endure. Paper assets are only as good as the collateral backing them, and many of those assets could vaporize in a systemic reset. Physical gold and silver will survive and maintain their value, while the dollar and Treasury Debt may lose a good portion of their value and purchasing power.
The Fed has incentive to continue QE – to levitate the stock and bond markets and keep interest rates low. But QE will eventually weaken the dollar with excess supply, reduced demand and reduced value. Expect gold to rise in price. The politicians want to spend money, lots of money, and will borrow and print until they can’t. The national debt and the price of gold will increase.
The correlation between the gold price, silver price and the debt growth has been amazingly accurate since 2001. It is no coincidence that the gold bull market continued on the waves of debt ceiling rises since then. Surprisingly, the correlation which lasted for 12 full years has been interrupted in the spring of this year. The disconnect is difficult to explain in the midst of an epic rush for physical gold driven by the Eastern hemisphere … apart from the fact there is a disconnect between the needs of institutional investors (which focus on trading in the futures markets) versus the needs of ordinary people and small investors (looking to […]
The last four cycles from crash low to high have taken from 1.75 to 2.5 years. That suggests an upcoming high sometime in 2015 – 2016. The last four cycles from crash low to launch low have taken 1.0 to 1.3 years. That suggests an upcoming launch low sometime in 2014. Following the launch lows, highs occurred approximately 0.5 to 1.2 years later. That suggests a high sometime in 2015 or 2016. We will wait and see.
Paper currencies seem normal. They seem natural. We are told they are necessary. Paper currencies with no intrinsic value are used everywhere – we pretend they are valuable. If we don’t look closely, or remember the world of 60 years ago, they seem like a good idea. Monopoly money. Euros. Dollars. What is the essential difference? Paper, with no intrinsic value, is accepted only because we have confidence in the issuer of the currency and/or because we have no other choice.
We live in a world of exploding debt, unsustainable deficit spending, Quantitative Easing, corrupt politicians, and “forever” wars that benefit the political and financial elite. We will need help to survive the collapse of failing economic and political systems.
The U.S. economy is being overwhelmed by a loss of faith and trust in politicians, government, and bankers, excessive debts, artificially low interest rates, unsustainable deficit spending, expensive wars, QE (money printing) to infinity, “Inflate or Die” monetary policy, potential derivatives implosion, Obamacare and so much more. A slow-motion collapse is occurring and most of us do not see it.
The U.S. stock market is near all-time highs, while politicians and economists are blathering about recovery, low inflation, and good timess. To the extent we rely upon the fantasies of ever-increasing debt, money printing, and credit bubbles, we are vulnerable to financial collapses. Perhaps a collapse is not imminent, but it would be foolish to ignore the possibility.
Both silver and military spending increased very rapidly following 9/11/2001. An analysis of increases in the total money in circulation, as measured by M2, and for the prices of gold and cigarettes produces similar results over long periods. Increases in the money supply, deficit spending, and debt clearly drive increasing consumer prices and increases in gold and silver prices.
If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. If Ponzi financing, paper money, budget deficits, and exponentially increasing debt cannot grow forever, they will eventually stop. The collateral damage will not be pleasant. This is why it makes sense to convert some unbacked paper and digital currency into real money – physical gold and silver. Store it someplace safe – outside the banking system and possibly in a country other than where you live.
In this article, author GE Christenson compares the timely character of gold and silver. They have served humanity as a store of value and wealth for over 3,000 years. This is in sharp contrast to the values an habits associated with the (economic and political) establishment. In that respect, think of paper money, unfunded liabilities, pension plans, exponentially increasing debt, massive budget deficits, “too-big-to-fail” banks.